Despite worldwide attempts to control growing rate of population, Middle East faces a significant increasing number: from 60 million in 1950 to 277 million in 2007(Sirageldin, 2002). In the same period, Iran has experienced a higher growth proportion from 16.9 million to 71.2 million which most of them have decided to live in urban regions. Furthermore, the most growing industrial districts and expanding cities are located in the arid region around central desert of Iran and an overwhelming majority of Global Climate Models (GCM) predicts more severe droughts and longer periods of low precipitation seasons in this country (Sumner, 1989; Fahimi & Kent, 2007; Maknoon et al., 2012). By considering this exacerbating condition, it can be claimed that the region actually faces a serious water shortage crisis. As a solution, Iran ministry of energy attempts to supply developing areas water demand, with water transmission from rich basins to aired regions. In the case of Dez to Qomrood project, three basic water transmission protocols have been candidated by Iranian ministry of energy. However, like many other major water resources projects in the previous century, the preliminary proceeding backs to 1960’s, which results in the construction of many infrastructures of the project before the declaration of the Climate change Theory. In the frame work of sustainable development, this project and its protocols should be applied in a series of researches to evaluate their efficiency for each particular aspect. However, there are few attempts reflecting practical results in this case (Maknoon et al., 2012). This research focuses on urban water supply in Dez to Qomrood Water Transmission Project.
2. Climatic Scenarios and Water Resources Management
Young science of climate prediction contains a wide range of uncertainties derived from nature and human activities. In addition to the complicated behavior of ocean-atmosphere cycle, Greenhouse emission, as the main factor of climate change issue, has become a complex socio-economic dispute with vague effective factors. Moreover, the results of different GCMs are noticeably unequal for a definite area. Regarding these reasons, a lucrative research must contain an extensive range of climate scenarios and GCMs to cover the most possible space of uncertainty. Multi model projection and scenario making have been used by numerous water engineering researchers such as Andersson et al. (2006), Serrat-Capdevila et al. (2007), Kunstmann et al. (2008), Maknoon et al. (2012), Van Oldenborgh et al. (2012), and Chikamoto et al. (2013).
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(Author: Masoud Kazem, Maryam Hasanzadeh, Reza Maknoon